Thursday, May 3, 2012

Are We There Yet?

Analysts seem to be spending a lot of time trying to figure out if the property market has bottomed out. Certainly there are some factors indicating the market can level off in 2012, lower interest rates, the reintroduction of stamp duty concessions for owner occupiers.

Louis Christopher from SQM Research provides a balanced view on the property market and his research shows that property values fell in the first quarter of 2012 over most capital cities. There are quite a few reporting bodies and here is how they saw things from January - March.


Source: Chris Vedelago, Prices and the illusion of certainty, The Age 30th April 2012; ABS - March quarter 2012

From here it's easy to see one reason why the reserve bank dropped rates .5% yesterday, there is a huge push to stimulate the property sector at the moment. If the banks move with the Reserve and offer a cut (Bank of Qld is the only one to do anything so far) it could "steady the ship" for the rest of 2012.

To offer some perspective Louis Christopher compiled some reports on house prices across 20 years.